Post-Referendum Political Turmoil

[Lex]

Since the vote to leave the EU, things seem to be going very wrong with the Conservatives & Labour:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36677028

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36671409

[rebbonk]

Maybe we're seeing the political purge that the UK so desperately needed?

Whilst the Conservative problems were reasonably predictable, I think the Labour melt-down has taken most by surprise.

It's a sad state of affairs that most politicians still don't get. They are (in the main) out of touch with the electorate. They are paid to represent the electorate, not to dictate their views to the electorate.

[Lex]

I don't think anything will change. As soon as the referendum result was announced, a petition was started for another referendum so we 'get it right'.

[rebbonk]

Ironically, that petition was started prior to the result by a LEAVE campaigner who was rather worried that the result would be close. I got virtually no support until the REMAIN camp realised it was there after the result was announced.

I'm really not sure what is going to happen. There are so many scenarios that could play at so many different ways, things are changing daily.

I always said that we'd have great difficulty leaving, that particular view hasn't changed. However, the longer it drags on, the less likely I think we will actually truly get out.

I understand Camoron's actions (and he would never have managed to get article 50 through the commons anyway) and I understand that it is foolish to open talks without someone in place who will see things through or without quite knowing what you want from the divorce. But alarm bells are ringing when both May and Gove are talking of things dragging on if they get the PM's job. I much prefer the open stance of Leadersom and her views that things need concluding swiftly for all concerned.

I think we have some interesting times ahead...

[Lex]

We definitely have some interesting times ahead. The other 27 members & the EU institutions themselves are very angry about our decision to leave, and are in no mood to do the UK any favours.

[rebbonk]

The EU won't want to do us any favours, but it also won't want to lose the trade it has with us. I notice Merkel's backing off a little, could that be due to pressure from the German motor industry?

The triggering of article 50 is going to be interesting. Once that is triggered there is a 2 year window and then (unless otherwise agreed) we are out of the EU. My understanding was that in order to trigger article 50 it needed to be presented to (and agreed by) Parliament. According to government lawyers yesterday, they believe that the PM does not need Parliamentary agreement and can issue notice alone. (I think this is where Mishcon de Reya are taking legal action). However, in order to remove us from the EU, we need to repeal the 1972 EU communities act and that does require Parliamentary agreement.

So, in theory we could be out of the EU by their understanding, but still in it by ours!

What a right b*gger's muddle!

[Lex]

I heard a different (non-government) legal argument the other day. Basically, the PM does need Parliament's agreement, as he can't repeal an Act (the European Communities Act 1972 in this case) by executive order.

[Lex]

The UK's getting it's 2nd female PM. OK, she's not been elected by the general populace of the country; but the Conservatives can claim bragging rights over Labour on this: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36737426

[Lex]

While the Tories seem to be re-pasting over the cracks in their party, Labour seems to be digging canyons: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36750934

[rebbonk]

I think that either of the choices for PM are going to be problematical for the UK. I also think that Camoron's left them a real poisoned chalice. I'll take a punt on Leadersom getting the job as she was pro-brexit and has stated she'll initiate article 50 ASAP.

As regards Labour, this was always going to happen at some point. Labour lost its way and became disconnected from the working man, its very raison d'être. I'd like to blame Blair for his Tory-lite policies but it goes a lot deeper than that. I can only hope that once the purge is complete Labour will regain its place as one of the two main parties.

I will tell you that I think my MP (Fletcher) is unfit to hold office. Not only did she arrogantly try to tell the electorate how to vote during the referendum, she voted to remain when Coventry voted overwhelmingly to leave. - She is paid to represent our views not install her views on us! She also resigned her minor office in protest at Corbyn. A pathetic, futile, act when you consider that Corbyn has the grassroots of the party behind him. I'd like to see all those that betrayed Corbyn deselected and expelled from the party.

Incidentally, I don't support any political party, but really think that our MPs are a total shower of sh*t and the whole political system stinks.

[Lex]

Yes, out political system does need reform, starting with out voting system. First past the post worked well where there were only 2 parties, but now there are a lot more it doesn't reflect how people vote. The system we were offered a few years ago seemed to be over complicated, but maybe some form of proportional representation should be looked at (but, it ain't going to happen!).

[rebbonk]

Leadersom has withdrawn, which means that May will be our next PM. Somehow, I have the feeling that this was the plan all along.

Now, will May trigger article 50, or will she call a general election? If I were her, I might well be inclined to go for the latter, which assuming the Tories win (is there any credible alternative?) would give her a lot more time to play with. However, there might be a couple of flies in the ointment yet. It looks like a majority will be needed in Parliament for article 50 to be triggered, apparently it doesn't fall under the PM's powers and if we haven't triggered article 50 by April of next year, the rules for actually exiting the EU change substantially, to our detriment.

We aren't out of the EU yet, and it still looks like an uphill battle to me.

[Lex]

We're definitely in for an interesting few months.

[Lex]

Ye Gods, Boris will be the face Britain presents to the world: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-36789972

And there I was, hoping the UK will be taken seriously on the world stage.

[rebbonk]

Well, we had May, Hammond.... And Johnson was the closest they could get to Clarkson!

Seriously, I hope she knows what she's doing employing this clown. I'm of the mind that the best place for clowns is the circus.

[Lex]

Boris does come over as a buffoon, but, apparently, he is a lot more intelligent than he comes across as. But, still, not the best of images to project to the world.