Serious Weather next week?

[Will]

There's been a lot of crazy talk today about next week having 100mph winds and snow. From what I've learnt off our local weatherman (Op), you can't predict that far ahead with any real accuracy.

But if you're reading Op, I'd love to hear the lowdown. It would be truely terrible if I was unable to get to work because of snow drifts.

[chillitt]

i need to know the answer to this one - there is a set of skis in the charity shop next door for a tenner. should i invest, or not?

[optrex]

Well you guys you know where to come for the serious weather chat, however, on this one occasions I will indulge

Here is a forecast model for the next 9 days


Now if we were surrounded by high pressure (light winds = less movement) so you could perhaps goto 5 days with moderate accuarcy. However we have low pressure systems (high winds= more movement/speed) therefore less accuracy.

Forecasts for todays situation changed by the hour, due to the speeds and movement caused by a deepening low pressure.

ATM Thursday 18th looks the most interesting in terms of wind. Here is todays forecast for the 18th.



I'll try and remember to post a copy of it every day so you can see how it changes, as the week progresses.

[optrex]

PS where did you get the 100mph & snowdrifts from ? Not the express again is it?

[Will]

My Dad, the source of all unsubstantiated rumors. But I believe he got it off the news, though I couldn't say which one. They always tend to be a little alarmist when it comes to the weather, which I'm sure always ticks the meteorologist fraternity off a little.

Thanks for the update though Op, much appreciated.

[optrex]

24 hours closer to the event and we can already see changes

[Shizara]

My Dad, the source of all unsubstantiated rumors...

Aren't most Dads? - Especially if they like to nip off to the pub for a pint and a gossip. They input all sorts of information true or heresay and equally bring all sorts of new rumours home.

[chillitt]

my dad told me, when the ice cream van plays its music, it means they have run out of ice cream...

[Shizara]

... and that left enough change in his pocket for his pint?

[chillitt]

... and that left enough change in his pocket for his pint?

sis!

[optrex]

On this chart, we can see that the low sitting over the north of Scotland, is weakening and moving towards the UK from 960mb to 970mb.

Average wind speeds (not gusts) decrease from the original forecast of 70mph to around 30mph and heavy rain affects just the northern part of the UK, with showers/light rain across the midlands and south.



The cooler temperatures though are speading further south across the UK.

[Madhatter]

Will we get snow though?

[Shizara]

We might need to employ the Disney snowmaking machine this year.

[optrex]

Nah, no snow on this particular day. There is a thing called the 528 DAM thickness line. This brings the possibility of snow and its nowhere in site on the 18th

[optrex]

Again for the 18th, you can now see the wind has dropped, but colder air flow decends across the UK

[optrex]

This is fun. Now perhaps you get an idea of why its so so difficult to forecast these things. Another 24 hours goes by and look how things change. Don't forget we are still looking at 12:00 hrs on the 18th Jan.

On this occasion, you can now see that the isobars have compacted across the UK



The proximity of the isobars indicates increased wind speeds and actually gives enough cause for alarm, that I am hoing to switch to another more detailed chart, for comparison.