Serious Weather next week?

[optrex]

On this chart, we can see that the low sitting over the north of Scotland, is weakening and moving towards the UK from 960mb to 970mb.

Average wind speeds (not gusts) decrease from the original forecast of 70mph to around 30mph and heavy rain affects just the northern part of the UK, with showers/light rain across the midlands and south.



The cooler temperatures though are speading further south across the UK.

[Madhatter]

Will we get snow though?

[Shizara]

We might need to employ the Disney snowmaking machine this year.

[optrex]

Nah, no snow on this particular day. There is a thing called the 528 DAM thickness line. This brings the possibility of snow and its nowhere in site on the 18th

[optrex]

Again for the 18th, you can now see the wind has dropped, but colder air flow decends across the UK

[optrex]

This is fun. Now perhaps you get an idea of why its so so difficult to forecast these things. Another 24 hours goes by and look how things change. Don't forget we are still looking at 12:00 hrs on the 18th Jan.

On this occasion, you can now see that the isobars have compacted across the UK



The proximity of the isobars indicates increased wind speeds and actually gives enough cause for alarm, that I am hoing to switch to another more detailed chart, for comparison.

[optrex]

OMG! here you can see the detail. Don't forget we still have 3 days to go, so things will change, rain across the country, but on this run you can clearly see heavy rain is expected over Snowdonia, Cumbria and the Pennines.



Winds are excessive - definately gales across the whole of the country, with gusts around 60-70 mph in exposed areas.

[optrex]

I feel like I'm talking to myself on this thread

Subtle change again today as the low drops deeper. Still wet and windy, France looks as though it will get stronger winds than the UK. Midlands currently getting the worst combination of heavy rain combined with the strong winds.

[Will]

I am listening, I'm just not going to pretend that I understand some of the names you're coming out with,

It is appreciated and I'm definitely gaining some insight into how precarious weather forecasting is.

[optrex]

Oops, I thought I was keeping it simple - what names do you need me to clarify?